Ricerca
La ricerca più recente (anni 2021-2023) include i seguenti lavori:
"Digital technologies and productivity: A firm-level investigation", (2023), Economic Modelling, 128, pp. 1-16 (with Chiara Puccioni and Ottavio Ricchi)
Abstract:
We characterize the process of digital transformation of Italian firms and the impact on TFP. Using information of unusual breadth on different types of investments in digital technologies, we consider various dimensions of digital adoption such as whether firms invested in advanced domains (like AI) or bundles of more than one technology. We investigate the effects of digital technologies on productivity using alternative criteria to classify firms as digital adopters. With our baseline definition, the estimated effect on the percentage change in TFP between 2015 and 2018 is about one percentage point (0.97). With more restrictive definitions of digital adoption, the estimated impact is found to be larger, and it is largest when digital adoption is associated with investments in at least one AI-related technology. We also show that, in general, the effect of digital adoption is more sizeable in the service sector, in larger firms and in older firms.
"Intermediated trade and credit constraints: The case of firm’s imports", (2023), International Economics, 175: pp. 201-220 (with Filomena Pietrovito and Alberto Franco Pozzolo)
Abstract:
Growing evidence suggests that a large share of international trade transactions are made through intermediaries and that whether firms use them or not depends on different factors. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate if credit constraints introduce a degree of difference among firms in their mode of importing. Building on the intuition provided by a simple theoretical framework, we use firm-level data from 66 developing and developed countries to test the possible links between credit constraints and reliance on import intermediaries. Our results show that indeed credit-constrained firms exhibit a higher probability of importing their inputs using an intermediary, while unconstrained firms are more likely to import directly. Our results also provide some evidence that the impact of credit constraints on the probability of indirect importing is amplified for firms with a higher distance from their international sourcing network. Moreover, if firms face other types of frictions to import, then the probability that credit-constrained firms rely on intermediaries is estimated to be higher. Remarkably, credit rationing affects the probability of indirect importing no matter what the mode of exporting is
"ITFIN: A stock-flow consistent model for the Italian economy", (2023), Economic Modelling, 119 (with Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte, Alberto Cagnazzo, Carlo Favero, Francesco Felici, Valeria Macauda and Cristian Tegami)
Abstract:
Italy is characterized by a large sectoral imbalance (government debt) that has generated a pervasive country-risk premium and affected financial markets and the real economy. In this regard, ITFIN is a quarterly econometric model for the Italian economy that adopts a stock-flow consistent framework to describe sectoral and macroeconomic dynamics. Developed at Italy’s Department of the Treasury, this model focuses on determining the sovereign risk premium in the government debt market, its impact on the financial and banking system, and its transmission to the real economy. The financial position of each institutional sector is derived through a stock-flow consistent approach. Additionally, prices and returns for financial instruments are derived by modeling their supply and demand, along with a characterization of how financial stocks impinge on agents’decisions and the patterns of real variables. Overall, our study illustrates this model and describes its properties by simulating the economy’s response under two counterfactual scenarios on monetary policy and different shocks to fiscal policy
“The Integration of Financial and Banking System in Macroeconometric Models for Policy Simulation”, (2023), di prossima pubblicazione in Guglielmo Maria Caporale (editor), “Handbook of Financial Integration”, Routledge (with Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte, Carlo A. Favero, Valeria Macauda, Mara Meacci, and Cristian Tegami)
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to provide a survey on the role of financial factors in macroeconometric models for policy simulation. We first describe how the failure of existing models to predict the financial crises and characterize its transmission mechanisms has led to important advances in mainstream modelling approach, with a prominent role assigned to financial intermediation. We then use the lens of a Stock-Flow Consistent model developed at the Italian Department of Treasury to illustrate the centrality of sectoral balance sheets in this approach and assess its ability to capture some of the patterns observed during the financial crisis. Our discussion is made taking as reference the criticisms posed to DSGE modelling after both the subprime loans and Euro-area sovereign debt crises
“Access to Finance and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports”, (2021), Journal of International Money and Finance, 115, p. 1-23 (with Mi Dai Alberto Pozzolo and Jianwei Xu)
Abstract:
The recent empirical literature estimating the elasticity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations has shown that, while devaluations have in general a positive effect on exports, the size of it varies significantly depending on firm-specific characteristics. Using Chinese firm-level data, we show that exporting activities by more financially constrained firms are more sensitive to exchange rate changes than those by firms with a better ability to raise external capital. This finding is detected at both the intensive and extensive margin of exports. Consistent with the result on export volumes, we also document that the exchange rate pass-through to export prices denominated in the domestic currency is lower for firms facingstronger financial constraints. Moreover, we establish that the role of financial conditions in determining a differential effect of exchange rate on exports continues to be relevant when we allow for a variety of alternative features that may also affect the firm-level elasticity of exports to exchange rate. These are the intensity of use of imported inputs, labor productivity, the degree of price stickiness and firm size
“Imports and Credit Rationing: A Firm-Level Investigation”, (2021), The World Economy, 44, n. 11, p. 3141-3167 (with Filomena Pietrovito and Alberto Pozzolo)
Abstract:
Firm performance is known to benefit from participation in import markets. For this reason, understanding whether credit constraints hamper firms’ ability to purchase foreign inputs is a relevant issue. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between financial constraints and imports of intermediate inputs using a large sample of small- and medium-sized enterprises from 66 developing countries. To measure credit constraints we use information from a firm’s in-depth self-assessment of its difficulties in having access to external finance. Furthermore, to tackle the endogeneity problems in the estimation, we rely on an instrumental variable approach that allows us to establish more directly the impact of financial constraints on importing activities. We provide statistically and economically significant evidence that credit constrained firms have a lower probability of importing intermediates (the extensive margin) and a smaller share of imported intermediates in their total input expenditure (the intensive margin). Moreover, we show that the impact on these margins of import is stronger for firms operating in countries where the financial system is less developed, the quality of institutions poorer and the overall level of economic freedom lower